Tuesday, September 5, 2017

econlife - Can a Hurricane Help an Economy? by Elaine Schwartz

First as a hurricane and then a tropical storm, Harvey is sure to affect more than the local Gulf Coast economy. With a path near almost one-third of U.S. refining capacity and one-fifth of its crude production, the storm already has shut down a hefty proportion of the industry.
Where are we going? To why hurricanes do not help an economy.


Step 1: A Supply Summary

First we should look at the supply chain that Harvey is hitting. Below, you can see the location of the Gulf’s refineries and where they send oil along the U.S. East Coast:
East_Coast_and_Gulf_Coast_Transportation_Fuels_Markets_-_Energy_Information_Administration

Step 2: Shipping

When Hurricane Harvey approached the Texas coast on Friday, immediately, some links in the gasoline shipping supply chain were eliminated.
You can see the dive to zero for departing vessels and maybe 1 for arrivals in Corpus Christi, Texas:
Edit_Post_‹_Econlife_—_WordPress-6

Step 3: Markets

Meanwhile, before the storm’s landfall, markets also had something to say. Because less gasoline could mean higher prices, we just needed to look at futures markets to see the weather prediction.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), last Friday’s ups and downs of futures for a gallon of unleaded gasoline corresponded to changes in the storm’s intensity. At first futures moved upward. But then they reversed when the weather prediction changed:
Gasoline___2010-2017___Data___Chart___Calendar___Forecast___News

Now, with the storm’s impact spreading, we can ask about the aftermath.


Our Bottom Line:  The Broken Window Fallacy

Nineteenth century economist Frederic Bastiat (1801-1850) said “destruction is not profitable” because disaster recovery replaces what was lost. So, although a clean-up could make the GDP surge, the spike reflects an increase in spending, not national wealth.
Bastiat questions the assumption that a broken window can be an economic blessing. He agrees that a glazier would receive, for example, six francs to fix it. However, he then says, “…if…you conclude…that it is good to break windows, that it helps to circulate money…I am obliged to cry out: That will never do! Your theory stops at what is seen. It does not take account of what is not seen.”

Bastiat wants us to recognize that the money given to the glazier would otherwise have been spent on new shoes or a book. Having been able to spend the six francs on a new pair of shoes, their owner would have had new shoes and the old, unbroken window.
So, whether looking at Corpus Christi’s port activity, gasoline futures, or the GDP, we can see the downside of hurricane economics.

My sources and more: Always excellent for unexpected detail, Vox had the economic perspective for Harvey. But if you want a firsthand look, do go to Corpus Christi port information. In addition,  EIA is a solid source as is this Marketwatch analysis of gasoline prices. Finally, econlib is always handy for bios and economic background information.
Please note that my description of the Broken Window Fallacy was published in a previous econlife post.

Hazlegrove-6763_6bIdeal for the classroom, econlife.com reflects Elaine Schwartz's work as a teacher and a writer. As a teacher at the Kent Place School in Summit, NJ, she’s been an Endowed Chair in Economics and chaired the history department. She’s developed curricula, was a featured teacher in the Annenberg/CPB video project “The Economics Classroom,” and has written several books including Econ 101 ½ (Avon Books/Harper Collins). You can get econlife on a daily basis! Head to econlife.

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